{"id":2522,"date":"2020-09-01T09:00:23","date_gmt":"2020-09-01T09:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ecd.rs\/blog\/avgust-2020-tehnicka-analiza-za-bitkoin"},"modified":"2020-10-06T08:18:52","modified_gmt":"2020-10-06T08:18:52","slug":"avgust-2020-tehnicka-analiza-za-bitkoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ecd.rs\/en\/blog\/avgust-2020-tehnicka-analiza-za-bitkoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Avgust 2020 – Tehni\u010dka analiza za BITKOIN"},"content":{"rendered":"

Posle punih godinu dana, bitkoin je kona\u010dno uspeo probiti najva\u017enije otpore (resistance<\/em>). U roku od samo mesec dana videli smo skok na bitkoinu od \u010dak 30%.
\nPostoji vi\u0161e razloga za ovakav njegov skok \u0161to \u0107emo objasniti u nastavku teksta.
\nDa li ovaj skok bitkoina zna\u010di da je tr\u017ei\u0161te kriptovaluta u\u0161lo u pozitivno tr\u017ei\u0161te (bull market<\/em>)?
\nSa sigurno\u0161\u0107u to niko ne mo\u017ee da tvrdi, ali uzimaju\u0107i u obzir da je bitkoin probio veoma sna\u017ene otpore, mo\u017eemo smatrati da je puno ve\u0107a verovatno\u0107a da se nalazi u pozitivnom tr\u017ei\u0161tu, nego dok je bio ispod tih otpora.<\/p>\n

\"Bitkoin<\/p>\n

BTC\/USDT nedeljni grafikon. Izvor: Trading View<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Najva\u017eniji nivo koji je bio potreban da probije se nalazi oko 10 500$. Prethodnih nekoliko puta se tu veoma sna\u017eno odbijao i to je rezultiralo velikim padovima. Posle skoro godinu dana, bitkoin je uspeo da zatvori nedeljnu sve\u0107u iznad tog nivoa \u0161to je rezultiralo daljim veoma impulsivnim rastom do slede\u0107eg nivoa otpora koji se nalazio oko 12 000$. Kao \u0161to se mo\u017ee videti na grafikonu iznad, za dalji rast bitkoinu je potrebno da zatvori nedeljnu sve\u0107u iznad 12 000$.<\/p>\n

Bilo je o\u010dekivano da to ne\u0107e uspeti iz prvog puta i da sada verovatno ide da testira prethodne otpore, jer prema teoriji otpor kada je probijen on postaje podr\u0161ka (support<\/em>). Trenutne velike zone podr\u0161ke su na cenama od 10 500$ i 9600$. Dokle god bitkoin nedeljne sve\u0107e zatvara iznad tih zona, ne treba da postoji bilo kakav strah da je ovo la\u017eno probijanje (fakeout<\/em>). Kao i u svakom pozitivnom tr\u017ei\u0161tu korekcije i padovi cene su sasvim normalna pojava.<\/p>\n

Indikatori<\/h3>\n

Kao \u0161to je re\u010deno u prethodnoj analizi<\/a> ukoliko zona na RSI<\/a><\/em> indikatoru bude probijena, mo\u017eemo o\u010dekivati veoma eksplozivan rast po\u0161to mu je to bio veoma jak otpor, a kada se jak otpor probija vrlo \u010desto mo\u017eemo videti eksplozivne skokove.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"BTC-USDT<\/p>\n

BTC\/USDT RSI nedeljni grafikon. Izvor: Trading View.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trenutna vrednost RSI<\/em>-ja se nalazi na oko 64 \u0161to je poprili\u010dno pozitivno. Dokle god na nedeljnom nivou bude iznad 60, teoretski gledano bitkoin se nalazi u pozitivnom tr\u017ei\u0161tu.
\nIako je mogu\u0107e da u toku nedelje ode ispod 60, bitno je da na zatvaranju nedeljne sve\u0107e bude iznad 60.<\/p>\n

Fundamenti<\/h3>\n

Verovatno se pitate \u0161ta je \u201ckrivac\u201d za ovoliki rast bitkoina.
\nVi\u0161e faktora je uticalo, ali jedan od krucijalnih razloga je pad dolara. Dolar ima potpunu obrnutu korelaciju sa bitkoinom. \u010cim je dolar krenuo da slabi, bitkoin je po\u010deo naglo da raste. Razlog tome je to \u0161to investitori kada vide da dolar vi\u0161e nije toliko stabilan i da gubi na vrednosti oni tra\u017ee alternativne \u010duvare vrednosti koje pronalaze u berzi (akcijama), metalima i kriptovalutama. Jedan od razloga pada dolara je cela ova kriza koja se desila u svetu i trgovinski rat izme\u0111u SAD i Kine. Dokle god dolar nastavi da pada, tr\u017ei\u0161te svetske berze, metala i kriptovaluta \u0107e veoma te\u0161ko pasti.<\/p>\n

Bitkoin i altcoin – <\/em>Prikaz dobitaka<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Procentualni<\/p>\n

Procentualni prikaz dobitaka za avgust. Izvor: Coin360.com<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Iako je bitkoin imao poprili\u010dno veliki rast, altcoin<\/a>-i uop\u0161te nisu zaostali za bitkoinom.
\nEthereum je sko\u010dio preko 24%, dok su XRP i litecoin sko\u010dili oko 20%. Gledaju\u0107i prvih 10 kriptovaluta, najve\u0107i skok je imao chainlink sa skokom od neverovatnih 90%.
\nRetki altcoin<\/em>-i koji su pali su cardano koji je zabele\u017eio pad od preko 25% i stellar<\/em> koji je zabele\u017eio pad od oko 7%.<\/p>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe za bitkoin<\/h3>\n

Kao i u prethodnim analizama<\/a> ponovo analiziramo indeks straha i pohlepe.
\nIndeks straha i pohlepe nam prikazuje sentiment tr\u017ei\u0161ta na bitkoinu. Koriste\u0107i razli\u010dite ulazne informacije, softver pribli\u017eno prikazuje kakav je sentiment, odnosno da li vlada pohlepa ili strah. Indeks se kre\u0107e od 0 do 100. \u0160to je bli\u017ei nuli ve\u0107i je strah na tr\u017ei\u0161tu. A \u0161to je bli\u017ei broju 100 ve\u0107a je pohlepa na tr\u017ei\u0161tu.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Indeks<\/p>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe. Izvor: alternative.me<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trenutna vrednost indeksa je 75 \u0161to predstavlja veliku pohlepu na tr\u017ei\u0161tu. Dok je cena bitkoina bila preko 12 000$ indeks je bio preko 85 \u0161to je predstavljalo ekstremnu pohlepu, \u0161to je i rezultiralo hla\u0111enjem cene. Ukoliko budemo videli nastavak rasta bitkoina, indeks mo\u017ee da vam bude dobar indikator da ne kupujete vrhove, jer \u010dim vidite da indeks prelazi 80 znajte da je u pitanju ekstremna pohlepa i da je vrlo verovatniji pad cene nego rast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Posle punih godinu dana, bitkoin je kona\u010dno uspeo probiti najva\u017enije otpore (resistance). U roku od samo mesec dana videli smo skok na bitkoinu od...","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":2256,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[190,176,183],"class_list":["post-2522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical-analysis","tag-avgust-2020-en","tag-bitkoin-en","tag-tehnicka-analiza-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAvgust 2020 - Tehni\u010dka analiza za BITKOIN - ECD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"U roku od samo mesec dana videli smo skok cene bitkoin-a od \u010dak 30%. 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