{"id":2549,"date":"2020-06-04T10:20:16","date_gmt":"2020-06-04T10:20:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ecd.rs\/blog\/tehnicka-analiza-za-bitkoin-maj-2020"},"modified":"2020-10-14T22:05:59","modified_gmt":"2020-10-14T22:05:59","slug":"tehnicka-analiza-za-bitkoin-maj-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ecd.rs\/en\/blog\/tehnicka-analiza-za-bitkoin-maj-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Maj 2020 – Tehni\u010dka analiza za BITKOIN"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mesec maj za bitkoin bio je izuzetno profitabilan. Videli smo skok od preko 30% od kraja aprila do sredine maja meseca. U prethodnoj analizi<\/a> rekli smo da ukoliko bitkoin uspe da probije zonu od oko 8000$, da \u0107e mu to biti velika potvrda da ulazi u pozitivno tr\u017ei\u0161te (Bull<\/em> M<\/em>arket). Nakon probijanja cene od 8000$ bitkoinu je trebalo nedelju dana da do\u0111e do psiholo\u0161ke granice od 10 000$ gde se odbio i ponovo testirao zonu od oko 8000$ i veoma impulsivno se odbio od te zone i ponovo oti\u0161ao na 10 000$. Uzimaju\u0107i u obzir da je bitkoinu cena od 8000$ bila veliki otpor (resistance)<\/em> mo\u017eemo re\u0107i da je bitkoin u pozitivnom tr\u017ei\u0161tu (Bull Market)<\/em> dokle god se nalazi iznad cene od 8000$.<\/p>\n

\"BitkoinBTC\/USDT nedeljni grafikon. Izvor: Trading View<\/em><\/p>\n

Na fotografiji iznad, mo\u017eemo da vidimo nedeljni vremenski okvir i vidimo da je bitcoin (u trenutku pisanja teksta) probio veoma veliki trendline otpor (resistance).<\/em> Ovo je veoma va\u017ena stvar za bitkoin, jer ukoliko cena uspe da ostane iznad ovog trendline<\/a>-a<\/em> dobijamo jo\u0161 jednu veliku potvrdu da se bitkoin nalazi u pozitivnom tr\u017ei\u0161tu \u0161to je veoma pozitivan scenario. Negativan scenario za bitkoin jeste taj da je proboj ovog otpora zapravo fakeout<\/em><\/a>. Izraz fakeout<\/em> se koristi za situacije u kojima cena probije odre\u0111ene otpore i time navu\u010de investitore i trejdere da kupe bitkoin, ali se ubrzo nakon toga vrati ispod tih otpora i zarobi ih u njihovim pozicijama.<\/p>\n

Fundamenti<\/h3>\n

U prethodnoj analizi smo pri\u010dali o bitcoin halving<\/em><\/a>-u i njegovom mogu\u0107em uticaju na cenu bitkoina. Halving<\/em><\/a> se desio 12. maja i cena je zanimljivo \u201eodreagovala\u201d. Prvo smo imali pad bitkoina 4 dana pred halving<\/em> i na dan halving-a<\/em> cena je bila oko 8 500$ da bi za samo 3 dana ponovo sko\u010dila na 10 000$. Ukoliko se vratimo na 2012. godinu, vidimo da je cena nakon prvog halving-a<\/em> sko\u010dila neverovatnih 100 puta. Drugi halving<\/em> se desio sredinom 2016. godine i nakon njega cena je sko\u010dila skoro 30 puta. Ostaje nam da vidimo kako \u0107e cena odreagovati posle tre\u0107eg halving-a<\/em> i da li mo\u017eemo da vidimo visoke multiplikatore, uzimaju\u0107i u obzir da \u0161to je vi\u0161e novca u bitkoinu to je te\u017ee za cenu da raste.<\/p>\n

Indikatori<\/h3>\n

Na fotografiji ispod mo\u017eemo da vidimo RSI<\/a> indikator \u010diji je cilj da nam pomogne u analiziranju i odre\u0111ivanju snage trenda. Ukoliko pogledamo RSI na nedeljnom grafikonu vidimo da se odbio od 60 i da se trenutno nalazi na oko 55. \u0160ta nam zna\u010di ta zona od 60?
\nZona od 60 na nedeljnom RSI predstavlja jedan od velikih otpora koji govori da li je tr\u017ei\u0161te neutralno, pozitivno ili negativno. Dokle god cena bitkoina ne probije zonu od 60 mi ne mo\u017eemo sa sigurno\u0161\u0107u smatrati da se bitkoin nalazi u pozivitnom tr\u017ei\u0161tu (Bull Market).<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Bitkoin<\/p>\n

BTC\/USDT RSI nedeljni grafikon. Izvor: TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n

Na slede\u0107oj fotografiji vidimo MACD<\/a>, jedan od indikatora koji nam poma\u017ee u identifikaciji trenda. U prethodnoj analizi<\/a> je re\u010deno da ukoliko ne vidimo neki ve\u0107i pad bitkoina mo\u017eemo da o\u010dekujemo bull cross<\/em> na nedeljnom nivou (presek plave i crvene linije). Bull cross<\/em> na nedeljnom nivou nam govori puno stvari. Ukoliko pogledamo nedeljni grafikon vidimo da skoro svaki put kada se desio bull cross<\/em> na nedeljnom nivou desio se skok cene, a ponekad i potpuni preokret tr\u017ei\u0161ta iz negativnog u pozitivno. Prethodni bull cross<\/em> se dosta lo\u0161e zavr\u0161io, jer je cena vrlo brzo nakon njega pala na veoma niske nivoe, ali taj pad mo\u017ee da se prepi\u0161e krizi na tradicionalnim tr\u017ei\u0161tima. Ostaje nam da vidimo da li \u0107e ovaj put histogram (crni stubi\u0107i) uspeti da se odr\u017ei u pozitivnom.<\/p>\n

\"Bitkoin<\/p>\n

BTC\/USDT MACD nedeljni grafikon. Izvor: TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n

Bitkoin i altcoin \u2013 Prikaz dobitaka<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Procentualni prikaz dobitaka za Maj. Izvor: Coin360<\/em><\/p>\n

Mesec maj za bitkoin je bio poprili\u010dno dobar, ali ne toliko dobar za altcoin<\/a>-e.<\/em> Videli smo skok od preko 16% na bitkoinu \u0161to je sasvim solidno, dok su \u201ealtovi\u201d malo zakazali. Ethereum<\/em> je imao skok od oko 4%, chainlink<\/em> samo 1%, dok su ostali ve\u0107i altcoin-i<\/em> oti\u0161li u minus. Od najpoznatijih altcoin-a<\/em> najvi\u0161e je pao dash<\/em> -15%, eos<\/em> sa minusom od preko 7% i litecoin<\/em> sa minusom od oko 4%.
\nCardano<\/em> je jedan od retkih altcoin-a<\/em> koji je uspeo da zabele\u017ei dobitak i to od preko 23%.
\nBitkoin dominacija se pove\u0107ala za oko 2% u odnosu na prethodni mesec i trenutno se nalazi na oko 66% tr\u017ei\u0161ta.<\/p>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe za bitkoin<\/h3>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe nam prikazuje sentiment tr\u017ei\u0161ta na bitkoinu. Koriste\u0107i razli\u010dite ulazne informacije, softver otprilike prikazuje kakav je sentiment, odnosno da li vlada pohlepa ili strah. Indeks se kre\u0107e od 0 do 100, gde \u0161to je bli\u017ei nuli predstavlja strah na tr\u017ei\u0161tu, a \u0161to je bli\u017ei broju 100 predstavlja pohlepu na tr\u017ei\u0161tu.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe. Izvor: alternative.me<\/em><\/p>\n

Trenutna vrednost indeksa je 41, \u0161to predstavlja blagi strah me\u0111u investitorima i trejderima.
\nU prethodnoj analizi<\/a> smo rekli, da iako smo videli skok cene, indeks nije prelazio u pohlepu i tada smo istakli da postoji jo\u0161 prostora za rast i videli smo rast od preko 2 000$. Razlog tome je to \u0161to cena uglavnom radi suprotno od sentimenta tr\u017ei\u0161ta. Vrlo \u010desto kada vidimo da je ve\u0107ina pozitivna na cenu (bullish),<\/em> cena u dosta slu\u010dajeva uradi ba\u0161 suprotno. Takav doga\u0111aj se mo\u017ee pripisati psihologiji berze i \u010dinjenici da velika ve\u0107ina investitora i ljudi gubi novac.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"...","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":1866,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[176,218,223,183],"class_list":["post-2549","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical-analysis","tag-bitkoin-en","tag-grafici-en","tag-indeks-en","tag-tehnicka-analiza-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMaj 2020 - Tehni\u010dka analiza za BITKOIN - ECD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Mesec maj za bitkoin bio je izuzetno profitabilan. 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