{"id":2555,"date":"2020-05-05T08:34:39","date_gmt":"2020-05-05T08:34:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ecd.rs\/blog\/april-2020-tehnicka-analiza-za-bitkoin"},"modified":"2020-10-14T22:01:02","modified_gmt":"2020-10-14T22:01:02","slug":"april-2020-tehnicka-analiza-za-bitkoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ecd.rs\/en\/blog\/april-2020-tehnicka-analiza-za-bitkoin\/","title":{"rendered":"April 2020 – Tehni\u010dka analiza za BITKOIN"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitkoin je u mesecu aprilu imao veoma pristojan skok za oko 17%(U trenutku pisanja teksta). U prethodnoj analizi<\/a> smo rekli da \u0107e bitkoin probijanjem zone od 6800$, slede\u0107i otpor imati na oko 7600$ gde se trenutno i nalazi. Da bismo dobili potpunu potvrdu pozitivnog trenda, trebalo bi da vidimo nedeljno zatvaranje sve\u0107e iznad 8100$. Dokle god se nalazi ispod toga nemamo sigurnu potvrdu da je bitkoin u pozitivnom tr\u017ei\u0161tu (Bull Market<\/em>).<\/p>\n

\"bitkoin\/dolarBTC\/USD dnevni grafikon. Izvor: TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Na fotografiji iznad mo\u017eemo videti u ozna\u010denim sivim boksovima zone podr\u0161ke (Support<\/em>) i otpora (Resistance<\/em>). Najpozitivniji scenario za bitkoin bi bio kada bi uspeo da probije zonu od 7900$ do 8100$ gde mu se nalazi najvi\u0161e otpora \u010dime bi, najverovatnije, potvrdio da zvani\u010dno ulazi u pozitivno tr\u017ei\u0161te (Bull<\/em> Market<\/em>). Negativni scenario za bitcoin mo\u017ee biti jako odbijanje od ove zone od 7600$ gde bi se najverovatnije vratio da testira prethodnu zonu podr\u0161ke od 6800$ do 6900$ i njenim probijanjem bi vrlo lako mogao da testira zonu od oko 6000$.
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Fundamenti<\/h3>\n

Ukoliko pogledamo trenutne fundamente bitkoina, on trenutno i ne izgleda toliko lo\u0161e. Do pre par meseci svi su bili u velikoj euforiji zbog halving<\/em><\/a>-a (halving<\/em>\u00a0obja\u0161njenje 2<\/a>),\u00a0ali se na vrhuncu euforije desio onaj neverovatan pad svetske berze, a samim tim i bitkoin. Nakon tog pada ljudi su postali poprili\u010dno nezadovoljni (Bearish<\/em>) cenom bitkoina, smatraju\u0107i da halving<\/em> ne\u0107e uticati na cenu bitkoina. Istorijski gledano dva puta smo imali halving<\/em> i oba puta nakon halving<\/em>-a cena je drasti\u010dno sko\u010dila. Ove godine halving<\/em> \u0107e se desiti 12. maja i ostaje nam da vidimo kako \u0107e cena ovaj put odreagovati posle njega.<\/p>\n

Indikatori<\/h3>\n

Na fotografiji ispod mo\u017eemo videti RSI indikator \u010diji je cilj da nam pomogne u analiziranju i odre\u0111ivanju snage trenda. Ukoliko pogledamo RSI mo\u017eemo videti da se trend na nedeljnom grafikonu trenutno nalazi u zoni oko broja 48. Zona od 40 do 58 se smatra neutralnom zonom. Probijanjem zone od 58 do 60 na nedeljnom nivou mo\u017ee nam dati veoma lepu potvrdu da su velike \u0161anse da po\u010dne pozitivno tr\u017ei\u0161te.<\/p>\n

\"BitkoinBTC\/USD RSI nedeljni grafikon. Izvor: TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n

MACD je isto jedan od indikatora koji nam mo\u017ee pomo\u0107i u analizi trenda. Njegovo trenutno stanje ne izgleda lo\u0161e uzimaju\u0107i u obzir kakav smo pad videli nedavno. Histogram (crni stubi\u0107i) se i dalje nalazi na negativnoj strani, ali sa tendencijom prema pozitivnoj strani. Ukoliko za dve nedelje ne vidimo ve\u0107i pad mo\u017eemo o\u010dekivati da se desi pozitivan presek (Bull Cross<\/em>), odnosno jo\u0161 jednu potvrdu da se bitkoin nalazi u pozitivnom trendu. Presek bi trebao da se desi ta\u010dno u nedelji halving<\/a>-a,<\/em> a na vama je da odlu\u010dite da li je to slu\u010dajnost ili ne.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Prikaz dobitaka za Bitkoin i ostale kriptovalute<\/h3>\n

\"Procentualni<\/p>\n

Procentualni prikaz dobitaka za april. Izvor: Coin360<\/em><\/p>\n

Vidimo da je mesec april bio prili\u010dno zelen mesec, pogotovo za altcoin<\/em><\/a>-e. Bitkoin je pri kraju meseca na oko 17% dobitka, nakon njega slede EOS i NEO sa dobicima od preko 15%, dok su najve\u0107i pobednici Ethereum<\/em> sa 40% i Chainlink<\/em> sa neverovatnih 65%. Bitkoin dominacija se trenutno nalazi na oko 64%.<\/p>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe za Bitkoin<\/h3>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe nam prikazuje sentiment tr\u017ei\u0161ta na bitkoinu. Koriste\u0107i razli\u010dite ulazne informacije, softver otprilike prikazuje kakav je sentiment, odnosno da li vlada pohlepa ili strah. Indeks se kre\u0107e od 0 do 100, gde \u0161to je bli\u017ei nuli predstavlja strah na tr\u017ei\u0161tu, a \u0161to je bli\u017ei broju 100 predstavlja pohlepu na tr\u017ei\u0161tu.<\/p>\n

\"Indeks<\/p>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe. Izvor: alternative.me<\/em><\/p>\n

U analizi za prethodni<\/a> mesec videli smo da je indeks bio na broju 12, \u0161to predstavlja ekstremno nisku vrednost, te smo rekli da kada do\u0111e na tako ekstremne nivoe mo\u017eemo \u010desto da vidimo velike skokove i potpune preokrete trenda. Trenutno se indeks nalazi na broju 20, \u0161to i dalje predstavlja veliki strah me\u0111u investitorima. Trenutni podatak nam pokazuje da postoji jo\u0161 prostora za skokove jer dokle god je ve\u0107ina investitora negativna na cenu, cena uglavnom radi suprotno.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitkoin je u mesecu aprilu imao veoma pristojan skok za oko 17%(U trenutku pisanja teksta). U prethodnoj analizi smo rekli da \u0107e bitkoin probijanjem...","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":1729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[181,217,223,226],"class_list":["post-2555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical-analysis","tag-bitcoin-en","tag-cena-en","tag-indeks-en","tag-indikator-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nApril 2020 - Tehni\u010dka analiza za BITKOIN - ECD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitkoin je u aprilu imao skok od 17%. 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