{"id":2573,"date":"2020-04-05T12:17:42","date_gmt":"2020-04-05T12:17:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ecd.rs\/blog\/mart-2020-bitkoin-je-imao-verovatno-najvolatilniji-mesec-u-istoriji-njegovog-postojanja"},"modified":"2020-10-14T21:04:26","modified_gmt":"2020-10-14T21:04:26","slug":"mart-2020-bitkoin-je-imao-verovatno-najvolatilniji-mesec-u-istoriji-njegovog-postojanja","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ecd.rs\/en\/blog\/mart-2020-bitkoin-je-imao-verovatno-najvolatilniji-mesec-u-istoriji-njegovog-postojanja\/","title":{"rendered":"Mart 2020 – Verovatno najvolatilniji mesec u istoriji za BITKOIN"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitkoin je imao verovatno najvolatilniji mesec u istoriji njegovog postojanja<\/h2>\n

Od po\u010detka meseca marta pao je neverovatnih 50% i svi se verovatno pitaju odakle toliko impulsni pad? Hajde da objasnimo. Moramo prvo da se fokusiramo na globalnu ekonomiju. Svetski monetarni sistem veoma lo\u0161e radi poslednjih godina, bilo je samo pitanje vremena kada \u0107e se desiti ovakav pad svetske berze, gde je glavni index Ameri\u010dke berze za mesec dana pao 30%. Ve\u0107ina ljudi misli da je Korona virus zaslu\u017ean za takav pad berze i pad globalne ekonomije, ali ne sla\u017eem se sa tim, pre bih rekao da je Korona virus bio samo okida\u010d za pad berze. Sada se verovatno pitate za\u0161to je bitkoin toliko pao? Razlog je veoma jednostavan. Investitori u bitkoin su videli da se svetska berza raspada, i obuzeo ih je veliki strah i krenula je masovna rasprodaja bitkoina koja je dovela do ovako impulsnog pada. Dosta ljudi je po\u010delo da pi\u0161e o tome kako je bitkoin mrtav, ali to je veoma daleko od istine.<\/p>\n

\"Bitkoin<\/p>\n

BTC\/USD dnevni grafikon. Izvor: Tradingview.com<\/em><\/p>\n

Na grafikonu iznad u sivim pravougaonicima mo\u017eemo videti zone podr\u0161ke (Support<\/em>) i otpora (Resistance<\/em>). Trenutno se bitkoin nalazi na velikom otporu oko 6800$. Njegovo probijanje bi gurnulo cenu na slede\u0107u zonu otpora 7500$. Vidimo da se trenutno najve\u0107a podr\u0161ka nalazi u zoni izme\u0111u 5600$ \u2013 5900$. Dokle god se bitkoin nalazi iznad te zone, ne postoji strah da vidimo neke ni\u017ee cene. Ukoliko nekim slu\u010dajem probije tu zonu podr\u0161ke mo\u017eemo onda mo\u017eemo videti testiranje zone oko 4500$, ali u trenutnoj situaciji je veoma mala \u0161ansa za to.<\/p>\n

\"Bitkoin\/dolar<\/p>\n

BTC\/USD RSI nedeljni grafikon. Izvor: Tradingview.com<\/em><\/p>\n

RSI (Relative Strength Index<\/em>) na nedeljnom nivou trenutno izgleda dobro. Posle onog impulsnog pada, celu nedelju je bio ispod 40, \u0161to ina\u010de ozna\u010dava da je negativno tr\u017ei\u0161te, ali se odmah slede\u0107e nedelje vratio iznad te zone. Zona izme\u0111u 40 i 53 se zove neutralna zona i tu se bitkoin trenutno nalazi. Probijanjem 53 bitkoin se vra\u0107a u pozitivno tr\u017ei\u0161te. Ukoliko ne budemo videli neki novi ve\u0107i pad na svetskoj berzi, mo\u017eemo o\u010dekivati bitkoin u pozitivnom tr\u017ei\u0161tu u toku Aprila\/Maja.<\/p>\n

Po\u010detna ideja bitkoina je bila da se on pona\u0161a kao sigurno uto\u010di\u0161te ili \u010duvar vrednosti u toku krize kao na primer zlato. Videli smo krizu na berzi, ali nismo videli da se bitkoin pona\u0161ao kako je zamilji\u0161ljeno. Verovatno se pitate za\u0161to? Odgovor je vrlo prost, ukoliko uporedimo zlato u toku prethodne krize 2008. godine vidimo da se pona\u0161alo kao \u0161to se bitkoin pona\u0161a sada. Dok je trajao pad na berzi, zlato je tako\u0111e jako padalo, ali je krenuo u veliki oporavak pre svetske berze i kada je svetska berza krenula da se oporavlja, zlato je imao najve\u0107i Bull Market<\/em> u svojoj istoriji. Da li mo\u017eemo neki sli\u010dan scenario da vidimo na bitkoinu. Vrlo verovatno da mo\u017eemo. Ve\u0107 smo videli skok od preko 80% na bitkoinu od dna na 3800$, dok se svetska berza oporavila tek 8 \u2013 10%. Za sada bitkoin radi isto ono \u0161to je zlato radilo 2008. godine. Ukoliko se ponovi istorija postoji velika mogu\u0107nost da mo\u017eemo videti jo\u0161 jedan veliki Bull Market<\/em> na bitkoinu.<\/p>\n

\"Procentualni<\/p>\n

Procentualni prikaz u Martu. Izvor Coin360.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Vidimo da su sve kriptovalute<\/a> imale poprili\u010dno crven mesec. Bitkoin je pao preko 30% dok su Ethereum, Eos, Litecoin<\/em> i ve\u0107ina ostalih glavnih kriptovaluta pale skoro 50%. Procentualno najve\u0107i pad su imali Neo i Atom<\/em> (Cosmos<\/em>) i XTZ (Tezos<\/em>) sa preko 50% gubitka. Bitkoin dominacija je porasla sa 62% u Februaru na 66% u Martu.<\/p>\n

\"Indeks<\/p>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe na Bikoinu. Izvor: alternative.me<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Indeks straha i pohlepe nam, koriste\u0107i razli\u010dite ulazne parametre, prikazuje sentiment na tr\u017ei\u0161tu bitkoina. Vidimo da se indeks nalazi na 12 \u0161to predstavlja izuzetan strah me\u0111u investitorima. Indeks je padao \u010dak na 9. Svaki put kada je indeks dolazio na ovako niske vrednosti, mi smo vi\u0111ali velike skokove, a \u010desto i potpune preokrete trenda. Ostaje nam da vidimo \u0161ta \u0107e ovaj put desiti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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